Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don’t Have All the Facts

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(as of 05/23/2019 at 22:00 UTC)

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Poker champion turned organisation specialist Annie Duke teaches you how to get comfy with uncertainty and make better decisions as a result.In Super Bowl XLIX, Seahawks coach Pete Carroll made one of the most questionable employ football history: With 26 seconds remaining, and trailing by four at the Patriots’one-yard line, he required a pass rather of a hand off to his star running back. The pass was intercepted and the Seahawks lost. Critics called it the dumbest play in history. But was the call really that bad? Or did Carroll actually make a terrific relocation that was messed up by bad luck?Even the very best decision does not yield the very best result every time. There’s always an element of luck that you can’t control, and there is always info that is hidden from view. So the key to long-lasting success( and preventing worrying yourself to death )is to believe in bets: How sure am I? What are the possible methods things could turn out? What choice has the highest chances of success? Did I land in the unlucky 10 %on the method that works 90%of the time? Or is my success attributable to dumb luck instead of great decision making? Annie Duke, a previous World Series of Poker champion turned service specialist, draws on examples from business, sports, politics, and(obviously )poker to share tools anyone can utilize to accept uncertainty and make much better choices. For many people, it’s tough to state”I’m unsure”in a world that values and, even, rewards the look of certainty. However professional poker gamers are comfortable with the reality that excellent decisions do not constantly result in excellent results and bad choices don’t always cause bad outcomes.By moving your thinking from a requirement for certainty to a goal of precisely assessing what you know and what you don’t, you’ll be less vulnerable to reactive feelings, knee-jerk biases, and destructive practices in your decision making. You’ll end up being more confident, calm, thoughtful and effective in the long run.

Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts

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